The (Dying) Business of Bollywood

I can't remember the last time I was a Bollywood movie. At lunch time, most conversations have recently revolved around largely regional movies - Malayalam, Tamil or even the fantastic animation in Mahavatar Narsimha on Netflix.

A close friend, who's been an editor for years shared recently: The sheer number of projects by every major studios have dropped- from about 50 last year to about 5 to this year. It's a bad time for the industry. We're seeing signs of financial duress - Karan Johar's Dharma sold 50% stake to billionaire Adar Poonawala last year while The Hollywood Reporter explained Why Bollywood Is Witnessing Its Worst Period With Fewer Films and Less Money for Writers.

The latest FICCI–EY Media and Entertainment Report (2024) shows that audience spending on Hindi cinema has fallen by nearly 15 percent since 2022, while regional industries like Tamil, Telugu, and Malayalam films grew in both theatrical and OTT viewership.

The Changing Face of Bollywood

Earlier this year- People flocked to Dil Toh Pagal Hai on Valentine’s Day and cheered for Sanam Teri Kasam and Yeh Jawani Hai Deewani. India’s love for cinema is being sustained by the lure of old hits. It’s been three years since the pandemic ended but Bollywood has not recovered. There's been a lack of original storytelling - predictable, formulaic stories and star-driven spectacles have clearly led to creative stagnation and audience fatigue and Bollywood’s perceived reliance on family connections (“star kids”) for leadership roles and on-screen talent contributed to a lack of diversity, suppressed new voices, and eroded public trust. Not to mention, soaring star fees and rising production costs rendered many films unviable, with large investments not translating to box office returns. The so-called “vanishing mass audience” means Bollywood risks losing a major share of India’s urban and middle-class viewers to alternative forms of entertainment.

Al Jazeera's feature: Bollywood is in a crisis — it either changes, or dies captures this debacle facing Bollywood quite well.

Rise of Regional Cinema

But, it's not as if people are not going to the theatres. The epic RRR and action drama Pushpa: The Rise – in Telugu – are among India’s top-performing movies of 2022. RRR has smashed records to become the third-highest grossing Indian film of all time, garnering about $160m worldwide. The Kannada film KGF:2 is also among the country’s biggest earners this year.

As reported by IMARC Group and Livemint reports, Hindi cinema’s box office collection declined from 44% in 2023 to 40% in 2024. More strikingly, original Hindi-language films (excluding dubbed hits) fell by 37%. Telugu, Tamil, Malayalam, Kannada language films earned 20% more at the 2024 box office collection compared to Bollywood.

Disruption from OTT

Online streaming has overtaken theatrical releases as a primary revenue generator for many Bollywood production firms, with some firms earning up to 1.5 times more revenue from OTT deals than from net box office sales (Fortune). The growth of digital streaming services (OTT) reshaped content consumption patterns, offering viewers a vast array of choices including international films and regional content at affordable prices.​ In comparison, traditional theatrical releases struggled, as families weighed the high total cost of a cinema outing against the affordability and convenience of streaming multiple platforms at home. India ranks among the top three markets for net new user additions and revenue growth for both Amazon and Netflix, the two most significant players of the many streaming platforms.

A 2021 report by RBSA Advisors projects India’s video over-the-top (OTT) market will reach $12.5 billion by 2030, growing from an estimated $1.5 billion in 2021, a growth which is fundamentally reshaping film consumption across genres. Language barriers have dissolved, viewers are now used to diverse cinematic languages the realism of Malayalam cinema, the narrative power of European films, and the aesthetics of Korean dramas.

In summary, as I hear most teens humming to K-Pop tunes and watching K-Drama, while Bollywood still relies on 60 year old Shah Rukh to carry the movie, surely, the future of Bollywood is in jeopardy.